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«All in all, the outlook for the Italian economy is nowhere near as bleak as it was at the start of the century. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect the Italian economy to grow 1.6% next year —”solid by historic standards…. With a savings rate slightly above 14% and mortgage debt that is a modest fraction of real disposable income, Italian households remain among the least leveraged of the euro zone…” That should allow the household sector to contribute to a robust recovery. The economists also note that the increase in the unit value of Italy’s exports—”the Gucci effect”— might enable Italy to avoid competing with China and other low-labor-cost countries. Believe it or not, government policy is also seen as a plus. Outstanding public debt is being kept on “a manageable path,” Goldman Sachs says. But because annual growth is projected to be in the modest 1.2% range, the health of public finances will depend heavily on reining in spending and actually collecting taxes, rather than on rapid economic growth».
